Economic Update: Our Local Interpretation

On Wednesday, April 15, Dr. Elliot Eisenburg provided for MIBOR an economic update for Indiana realtors. Throughout his presentation, Eisenburg explained the ways in which the COVID-19 crisis has effected various industries. These included transportation, retail, and finally, real estate. Although times seem grim at the moment, Eisenburg provided relief and reassurance for the days to come.  

Economic Update For Crawfordsville Market And Our Surrounding Communities:

At Taylor Real Estate Specialists we believe there is a silver lining on the near horizon.  We appreciate our clients being patient and working together to flatten the curve and we are finally making significant headway.  I (Lisa) have received numerous phone calls with respect to my opinion on questions such as, “Will I be able to sell my home?” or, “Will I be able to purchase a home this year?” The resounding answer is YES! I absolutely believe you can look at our market as being put “on hold” over the past month.  We still have a shortage of homes, and we still have a plentiful demand in the buyer community. As a result, home prices should shore up to be nearly the same as last year. It is still key to make sure that you are doing your part to “ready” your home and use this downtime to your advantage to make your home shine amongst the competition. I anticipate the flood gates will open very soon, and we want to be ready for that. 

At this time, Taylor Real Estate Specialists is still operating virtually. For more information, please read our March 23 update. We will continue to assess the situation and respond according to local, state, and federal guidance. 

An Abysmal, But Short-Lived Crisis

1. In regards to building, Eisenburg says, “We were going to rely on homebuilding for the first time in twelve years. It was going to be one of the horses that kept the economy moving. Now, they got crushed like thugs, right? So, we’re not buying cars, builder sentiment sucks. This is a short-run problem, but you can’t ignore it and think that it’s going to be good tomorrow.” 
2. Pending sales in Indianapolis aren’t great, but are better than the rest of the nation. Prices are still up 22%. 
3. Economically, the Midwest is suffering, but ultimately fairing much better than the coasts.

What To Expect Going Forward

1. Many economists are predicting a V-shaped economic recovery, constituted by “rapid decline matched by rapid improvement.” Others are predicting a U-shaped recovery, wherein “we go down, we go back up, [but] we linger at the bottom.” Eisenburg firmly believes we will witness a check-mark-shaped economic recovery, marked by a rapid decrease in economic health, and slow-but-steady regrowth. He says, “It may not be a V, but it’s a check mark. Now, we’re still in this [decline] part. We had a really bad mid-March through at least the end of April—six weeks in our homes. We’re two-thirds of the way through. Maybe they extend it a bit. This is the very worst time. This will not persist. It’s terrible, but it won’t persist. It’s like when you stub your toe on the corner of a piece of furniture. It hurts like hell, but you know that in a minute or two or three, it ends. We’re now stubbing our toe on the edge of the furniture: immensely painful, but quite temporary.” 
2. Home values will not see drastic change. The housing shortage will remain.
3. Real estate might see a busy summer/fall season, rather than the usual busy spring season. The busy season will simply be delayed, rather than eliminated altogether.